Skinhead Moonstomp

As I noted a couple of days ago, Ken is making some claims for this year's forecasts in his Ezine for Sept 3:

"We were quite happy to have gotten most events correct for the 2006 version. p41 lists 12 June "cold wintry blast brings snow to low levels in Canterbury..". We also got the timing of the formation of Cyclones Larry/Wati and Monica, the flooding in the Wairarapa, the good snow amounts at Whakapapa and the low levels in the southern hydrolakes."

Let's take a look at "the flooding in the Wairarapa" which he claims to have "gotten" correct. Over the three days from July 4th to 6th, the Wairarapa was wet. From the NIWA climate summary for July:

"High rainfall totalling 100 to 160 mm or more over 3-days occurred throughout Wairarapa, Wanganui, and Wellington during 4-6 July. This resulted in high rivers and severe surface flooding throughout much of southern Wairarapa, along with substantial landslips in parts of the Wanganui and Wellington regions. 100 mm was reported within 24 hours in parts of South Wairarapa, where people had to be evacuated from their homes. Martinborough was isolated by the floodwaters, and surface flooding also affected Greytown and Carterton. In Wairarapa, more than 50 roads were closed due to flooding or landslips."

I looked through Ring's almanac to see if I could find his successful prediction of these dramatic events. I started at the front. On p34 he gives his "season estimates". Nothing there. On p41, he gives his extreme weather warnings. Nothing there either. I flipped through to the chapter for July. The summary on p214 doesn't mention floods or heavy rain in the Wairarapa, and the daily summaries don't either. A bit further on (p227/8), his daily charts don't look anything like the weather charts for the period. He forecasts "showers in the north and east of of the North Island for the 4th, then it's fine and dry right through to July 8th. In early July, the only reference to any serious weather is in the summary for July 8th, where he mentions "gale force winds and more frequent showers" south of Taranaki. That paragraph also includes "in the east from Gisborne to the Wairarapa, dry with strong westerlies". There's nothing in his Ezine for the period either.

Try as I might, I could find no reference to heavy rain in the region within a week either side of the actual event. So how does Ring reckon he correctly forecast the Wairarapa floods? I don't know... Perhaps he'll tell us. In the meantime, I am forced to conclude that he is misleading us. I'm sure that this is not deliberate, and that he will correct his statement promptly. I'll be sure to provide an update when he does.